My Sunday newspaper paints a story of woe - property prices down up to 10% in some places apparently and transaction levels very low. All examples quoted within the M25 as usual. So I thought I'd turn my lap top on and look at actual statistics in the last few weeks and see how things are actually shaping up in Northampton.
TRANSACTION LEVELS
At this time of year, we expect things to be slow. This weekend even the most dedicated of investors is out investing in a Christmas tree, so it's not a period when we expect to be agreeing a record number of sales. As such the number of enquiries we're getting about properties that are for sale is low - very little interest being shown across the board and what interest exists is not coming from private purchasers - again to be expected as people aren't thinking about their next property in early December - they are thinking about Christmas and all that comes with it.
What's interesting though is that the number of sales agreed, per viewing, is high. It's REALLY high actually - we've agreed as many sales as we would expect to, just off a reduced number of enquiries. So buyer quality is good and it's astute investors who are taking advantage of a quiet market and snapping things up - 3 in 4 sales over the last 3 months have been to investor purchasers.
PROPERTY PRICES
There's some definite caution in the market at the moment which I suspect is brought about by the political uncertainty we hear about on a daily basis. This has been the case for a while - people are thinking carefully about property purchasing decisions, which sounds a strange thing to say(!) but is basically highlighting that there have been periods in the past where people jumped in more freely.
But importantly sales prices are NOT yet going backwards. It's been the case for a while that actual SALE prices are less than listing prices - this is mainly due to agents competing for business and properties ending up listed for far more than they should be - but the price they end up selling at hasn't changed. The market currently is sitting level - not rising or falling for most properties.
What we have seen of late is price reductions (as the over priced properties get reduced to a level they will sell at) and the privately owned agencies taking more care about the prices at which they are prepared to accept instructions - if it's no sale : no fee, they want to be able to sell what they are listing - common sense. There still remains an issue with some agents over-valuing but this is mainly restricted now to the corporately owned ones where staff are incentivised to list new properties, and where targets for new stock are fundamental - as such their staff are more likely to agree to anything to get the keys. Or of course the internet agents who get paid up front, and as such don't really bother about whether the asking price is realistic.
THE OUTLOOK
Under usual conditions we'd expect the market to speed up in the New Year. Traditionally there's a surge of private individuals looking to either sell property, or buy it - the New Year brings a fresh impetus for them to get things like this sorted. This year may be slightly different with BREXIT looming in the background but I'm remaining fairly bullish and have recently bought another property myself which shows I'm not overly concerned whatever our future relationship with Europe. Interest rates remain fairly low, the shortage of property remains fairly high, and I know how many people I speak to who have funds to buy and are currently biding their time - if something happens to reassure them, they and others like them will all jump in and upward movement could well resume. Over to you Mrs May!
