Now
we know Labour will be taking the reins of government and ushering in a new era
of policies and promises, particularly in housing and property markets. Their
manifesto outlines ambitious plans to address the chronic issues of housing
affordability, renters' rights, and homelessness. However, the practical
implementation of these initiatives, especially in a local context like Northampton,
raises significant questions. Yet before we look at those, it is essential to
see what has happened up to this election.
Impact of the General Election
on the UK Property Market
Despite
the anticipation and uncertainty surrounding the general election, the UK
property market has shown resilience and strength. For June, UK house prices
for homes sold (subject to contract) remained robust at £348 per square foot,
marking a 5.1% increase compared to December 2023. This demonstrates the
market's ability to sustain growth even amidst political changes.
The
volume of property listings has also seen a notable rise, with 35.6k UK
listings recorded this week, reflecting a 7.5% increase compared to the
year-to-date average from 2017 to 2020. This suggests that homeowners remain
confident in the market and continue to list their properties despite the
election.
Sales
figures further illustrate the market's positive trajectory. Total gross sales
reached 26,198, 6.9% higher than the average from 2017 to 2019 and 6.4% above
the 2024 weekly average. Additionally, net sales this week stood at 20,028,
representing a 20.8% increase compared to the same week in 2023. While there
has been a slight uptick in sale fall-throughs, at just under 1 in 4 sales
(23.5%), this is still below the seven-year long-term average of 24.8%,
indicating stability in the market.
In
summary, the recent general election has not significantly impacted the UK
property market. House prices have continued to rise, listings and sales have
increased, and the market remains strong, providing a positive outlook for
homeowners and landlords.
So,
let us address the future.
Addressing the Housing Shortage
Labour
has set a bold target to build at least 150,000 council and social homes each
year. This move aims to tackle the severe shortage of affordable housing,
ensuring that more people have access to secure and decent homes. Many of these
new homes will be council houses, providing affordable options for families and
individuals. However, the manifesto lacks clarity on where the funding (£18.9
billion per year to build those council and social homes, excluding the cost of
the land) for this extensive construction project will come from, raising
concerns about the feasibility of such an ambitious goal.
Their manifesto
includes reinstating housebuilding targets for local authorities, hiring 300
more planning officers funded by increased stamp duty for overseas buyers, and
selecting sites for new towns by year-end. Compulsory purchase rules will be
revised to eliminate 'hope value,' some green belt areas may be reclassified as
'grey belt' for potential development. Local buyers will be given priority for
new homes, and a permanent mortgage guarantee scheme is proposed.
Despite some
practical ideas, Labour’s approach faces challenges. Greater use of compulsory
purchase powers could help provide affordable housing, but balancing property
rights and addressing NIMBY’ism within the environmental movement will be
difficult. Previous governments have struggled with ambitious housebuilding
plans, and Labour's stance on issues like nutrient neutrality rules remains
vague, raising doubts about their ability to implement these changes
effectively.
Enhancing Renters’ Rights
With
Labour's plan to abolish Section 21 evictions, renters can expect more
stability, which currently allows landlords to evict tenants without a reason.
However, this change will only be implemented once the government has reformed
the courts, aiming to provide more security for renters. This could take years
to sort. Additionally, Labour intends to introduce rent controls to cap
excessive rent hikes, which has proven contentious in other markets. Historical
data from Scotland and worldwide indicate that rent controls often lead to
decreased investment in rental properties and a reduction in the overall
quality of available housing, potentially causing more harm than good.
Other key Labour measures include
ending bidding wars for rental properties, capping upfront payments required to
secure a rental, and mandating that all rental homes meet an EPC rating of C or
above by 2030. These policies are designed to provide more stability and
affordability for renters, with Labour estimating that these energy efficiency
improvements could save tenants £250 annually. While these changes intend to
benefit tenants, they also impose new responsibilities on landlords, requiring
them to invest in property upgrades and adhere to stricter rental practices.
Another
significant change for the rental sector is the creation of a national landlord
register. This initiative aims to improve standards and accountability in the
private rental market, ensuring landlords maintain their properties to a decent
standard.
Supporting First-Time Buyers
Labour's
manifesto also promises to support first-time buyers by reducing the barriers
to homeownership. This includes increasing the availability of affordable
housing and offering financial incentives. Such measures could stimulate market
activity and make it easier for young people and families to purchase their
first home, although the specifics of these policies remain vague.
Promoting Housing Standards and Sustainability
To
ensure all homes provide a safe and decent living environment, Labour plans to
enforce a Decent Homes Standard. This standard will focus on improving safety,
decency, and energy efficiency, setting clear criteria for what constitutes a
'decent' home. Additionally, millions of homes will be retrofitted to enhance
energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, and lower energy bills. This
initiative reflects a strong commitment to sustainability, which could also
create new opportunities and challenges for the property market in Northampton.
Tackling Homelessness
Labour
is committed to ending rough sleeping within five years by increasing support
and housing options for people experiencing homelessness. This pledge
highlights a significant focus on social welfare and community well-being.
Regulating the Housing Market
Labour
also intends to reform land and property taxes to ensure fairness and
efficiency in the housing market. Additionally, they aim to curb property
speculation and reduce the number of vacant homes by imposing higher taxes on
empty properties. These measures could stabilise the market and make housing
accessible to needy people.
Implications for Northampton Landlords
and Homeowners
These
policies will bring changes, especially for Northampton landlords. Increased
regulation, particularly in the rental sector, will require landlords to ensure
they are extracting the maximum value of their investment. It shocks me that so
many landlords haven't increased their rents for years. With some of these
changes on the horizon, Northampton landlords should seriously consider making
those changes in the coming months. Call the office on 01604 809 917 if
you need any advice.
The
push for affordable housing and support for first-time buyers might alter
market dynamics in the rental and lower-priced starter home markets,
potentially impacting property prices and rental rates (yet not in a big way).
Furthermore, focusing on energy efficiency and sustainability will likely lead
to new opportunities and challenges in property development and management.
In
my considered opinion, the changes for Northampton homeowners will be quite
minimal. Building more homes will temper house price growth, yet that isn't
always a bad thing. People tend to move when they need to move, not based on
house prices. So overall, I can't see a huge change for Northampton homeowners
over the next five years.
Overall,
for all property owners, it is essential to remain realistic.
Historically,
not all manifesto promises come to fruition. The Conservative government
managed to start (let alone finish) only 55% of their 2019 manifesto
commitments. Given this precedent, it's reasonable to doubt that Labour will
deliver all their promises, let alone swiftly.
In
conclusion, while Labour's manifesto presents a comprehensive plan to address
housing issues, it will likely take time before significant changes are felt in
Northampton. Landlords should prepare for a slightly more regulated environment.
Yet, we have seen increased regulation over the last decade, so the immediate
impacts may be limited as the government navigates the complexities of
implementing these ambitious policies.